I am offering a $10,000 Reward to the first industry trade or professional association, outcomes committee, benefits consulting firm, actuarial firm that "validates" outcomes, US citizen or for that matter undocumented alien with a fake Social Security number who proves that, for population-based pre-post analysis, the DMPC Retrospective Qualification methodology is mathematically invalid and that their methodology is valid.

All you need to do is find one set of numbers involving up to 10 real or hypothetical people and their real or hypothetical claims, with up to three periods — a baseline period, a "lookback" period at your option, and a study period — in which the DMPC methodology gives an incorrect answer for the change in claims cost from baseline year to study year, and your methodology yields a correct answer. Example, if claims for everyone who has the condition fall 20% in the hypothetical example between the baseline and study periods, your methodology would have to show a 20% decline and the DMPC methodology would have to show something different.

All the people in your example must have the condition but they need not have the condition in every year. They may have it in the baseline year, the lookback period, or the study year, all three, or two of the three.

Let me start you off by giving you the first two strikes against me. First, you can assume that your (provably invalid, of course) non-chronic trend adjustment is perfectly valid, so that you've teased out all the inflation in the three years, which are now comparable to one another.

Second, unlike the strict retrospective methodology, you don't need to assume that someone who presents with the condition in the study year also had it in the baseline year. Just be clear whether they do or they don't.

So with these two strikes already called against me, all you need to do is throw one more strike to win the $10,000.

To enter, you may either use the retrospective methodology from Why Nobody Believes the Numbers once published, or else — to be more certain of being first — prepay $1000 for an advance entry, which includes a site license to share the pdf copy of the book with up to 20 named people. Remember, all you need to do is find one example where yours works and mine doesn't.

You'd actually be doing me a favor since if there is a mistake, it's worth $10,000 to find it.