Why Nobody Believes the Numbers:
The Outcomes Measurement Guide for Grown-Ups

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News Flash to Interactive Health Solutions: Half Of All People Are Dumber Than Average And There Appears to be a 50% Chance You Are Among Them

Intelligent Design Awards recognize those contributions which most set back evolution of the disease management and wellness fields. Just as engineers say that more is learned from a single bridge which collapses than from 100 which stay up, there are serious lessons to be learned from these humorous failures. (Note: DMPC is officially neutral on Intelligent Design vs. Evolution in general. Just not in disease management and wellness.)

Averages seem to be a very difficult concept for people to understand. Like my ex-wife, who was scared of flying. I was trying to explain averages to her once, and I said, "For instance, half of all pilots are worse than average."

She replied: "We're not taking any more planes until the airlines address this issue."

One time I was attending a presentation at which the presenter kept giving case studies of how much her company saved. After every case, I would ask her what the average of all the cases was and she would respond by saying, "OK, let me show you another case study."

Finally, I pretty much told her that she had to tell me the average and if she wasn't ready to tell me the average, that I would simply leave the conference room, and when she got to the place where the average would be revealed, she could call me back in.

She finally answered me, albeit in an exasperated tone of voice suggesting that only an idiot could possibly think my question was a good one.

“There is no average,” she replied. “It varies.”

Well, someone also needs to explain averages to Interactive Health Solutions, whose website says:

In 2008, the top performing organizations among our 1,200 clients spent on average $1,200 less per employee on annual healthcare costs [than the average]

Here's some news for these guys: You could make a random list of any 1200 organizations and the top ones would spend at least $1200 less per employee than the average of those companies.

This is a meaningless claim for several other reasons too, albeit none as colorful as that one:

(1) The organizations could have different benefit designs, demographics, or geography
(2) How many organizations constitute the "top" ?
(3) What if anything did that have to do with them?

PS You get a lot of extra points if you realized that the heading is not technically accurate. Half of all people are dumber than the median, which is not necessarily the average. A minor distinction perhaps, but a writer posting examples of invalidity has to be extremely valid himself. Otherwise it would be like Governor Perry railing against stimulus funds for states while begging Washington to send Texas more.

First Intelligent Design Award


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